Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1948

   Mesoscale Discussion 1948
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0730 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

   Areas affected...parts of central/south central Iowa

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 573...

   Valid 121230Z - 121430Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 573
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity spreading across the Missouri River
   continues to generally weaken, but renewed intensifying thunderstorm
   development still appears possible near the I-80 corridor of central
   Iowa through 9-11 AM CDT.  If this occurs, it could pose a risk for
   severe hail and damaging downbursts.

   DISCUSSION...To the east through southeast of a remnant MCV,
   2-hourly surface pressure rises on the order of 2-5+ mb have been
   maintained, centered at 12Z in a corridor across and north-northeast
   of Omaha NE into areas west of Carroll and Atlantic IA.  Ahead of
   this perturbation, deeper boundary layer moisture content
   concentrated along a baroclinic zone in the 925-850 mb layer
   continues to provide support for a narrow plume of sizable CAPE near
   the I-80 corridor of central Iowa.   So, renewed intensifying
   thunderstorm development still does not appear out of the question
   into and across the Des Moines area through mid morning.  If this
   occurs, a belt of convectively augmented westerly mid-level flow is
   contributing to sufficient shear to support organization, including
   supercell structures with potential to produce severe hail and
   locally strong downbursts.

   ..Kerr.. 08/12/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...

   LAT...LON   42109433 42029254 41659238 41199253 40939268 40839335
               40819392 40999487 41399483 42109433 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN