Mesoscale Discussion 1946
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Areas affected...parts of northeast through east central Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
572...
Valid 120635Z - 120830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Ongoing developing severe storm cluster will probably be
maintained at least a few more hours, and its possible it could
approach areas near/west of Greater Omaha by 5-6 AM CDT, accompanied
by the risk for damaging wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...Though embedded within modest westerly deep-layer mean
flow on the order of 20 kt, the ongoing intense supercell/compact
cluster has been maintaining a southeastward propagation near 40
kts. This has been accompanied by an increase in severe gusts to
the north/northwest of Ainsworth and O'Neill. On its current track,
it appears likely to approach areas near/west of the Greater Omaha
vicinity by 10-11Z.
While there does appear potential to maintain continuing inflow of
seasonably moist air supportive of sizable CAPE, convection
continues to propagate into an environment with increased mid-level
inhibition, with somewhat limited forcing for ascent. Activity will
probably have to continue to grow upscale in the near term,
accompanied by a substantively expanding and strengthening surface
cold pool to provide continuing support for maintenance. This
remains a bit uncertain, but appears possible. Regardless, a risk
for severe winds will likely persist for at least a few more hours,
requiring a new severe weather watch issuance.
..Kerr/Smith.. 08/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 43099897 42959838 42439688 42089601 41189634 41169742
41459838 42129968 42519984 42789958 43099897
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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