Mesoscale Discussion 1936 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Areas affected...Southern Indiana into northern Kentucky Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565...568... Valid 112224Z - 120030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565, 568 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along and behind an outflow boundary may pose a transient risk for large hail and/or severe gusts over the next couple of hours. However, these storms will likely remain within an environment unfavorable for substantial intensification and a prolonged severe threat. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and radar/visible imagery depict an outflow boundary rapidly expanding westward as the cold pool associated with a robust MCS continues to expand. Across southwest IN, an organized, but compact MCS, southwest of Indianapolis has shown steadily declining velocities behind a bowing segment, suggesting that the complex is gradually weakening as it migrates further east into the cold pool. Additionally, new convection continues to develop along and behind the outflow boundary across northern KY. In general, this activity has exhibited transient intensification as buoyant parcels originating within the warm sector are quickly displaced into the cold pool. This trend should generally continue over the next couple of hours with most model solutions hinting at additional thunderstorm development through roughly 00-02 UTC. Storm motions into the cool/stable air mass should continue to limit storm longevity, but strong deep-layer wind shear across may support periodic storm organization with an attendant threat for large hail (most likely around 1 inch) and severe/damaging gusts. Although new watch issuance will likely not be needed, local expansions may be required as new convection emerges. ..Moore.. 08/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 38908775 39228786 39558769 39778734 39838693 39788625 38998471 38628443 38278462 37898492 37728533 37758572 37938629 38328706 38628748 38908775 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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