Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1934

   Mesoscale Discussion 1934
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0453 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern Kentucky into northeast Tennessee and
   adjacent portions of western Virginia and North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 568...

   Valid 112153Z - 120000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 568
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe MCS will continue to pose a threat for severe
   winds over the next few hours, and will likely exit the southern
   edge of WW 568 before a weakening trend occurs. Downstream watch
   issuance will likely be needed in the next hour or two to address
   any lingering severe wind threat.

   DISCUSSION...A severe MCS continues to push south/southeast across
   northeastern KY with a history of recently producing winds within
   the line between 55-65 mph based on reports/wind observations. The
   peak of the bowing segment continues to align with the intersection
   of the MCS and a residual outflow boundary/frontal zone draped
   southward from eastern KY into the southern Appalachians. To the
   west of this boundary, a very buoyant air mass remains in place and
   will continue to support the potential for intense convection and
   severe gusts over the next couple of hours as the line approaches
   the southern edge of WW 568. 

   Beyond roughly 00 UTC, the general expectation is for the MCS to
   begin weakening with time as it moves into an air mass that has
   already seen some degree of convective overturning and into a region
   with weaker deep-layer wind shear. However, given the
   well-established cold pool and some residual buoyancy, it appears
   likely that this weakening trend will be gradual with some lingering
   threat for severe/damaging wind gusts. Additional downstream watch
   issuance will likely be needed in the next hour or two to address
   this potential.

   ..Moore.. 08/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   35258346 35328407 35568447 37348535 37778537 38118505
               38228434 38218362 38198304 38078272 37748222 36448179
               36008171 35808186 35598209 35358260 35288322 35258346 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH