Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1931

   Mesoscale Discussion 1931
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0252 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

   Areas affected...southeast Indiana and southwest Ohio into portions
   of northern and eastern Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 568...

   Valid 111952Z - 112145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 568
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A corridor of more concentrated damaging wind gusts and
   brief tornado potential appears to be developing across the
   discussion area.

   DISCUSSION...Latest mesoanalysis places the western flank of a
   broadly bowing MCS in progress over southeast IN into southwest OH
   in close proximity to a warm front slowly advancing east through
   portions of northern and eastern KY. There, earlier VWP data from
   KILN and current objective analysis indicate a slight enhancement of
   low-level shear, which coincides with a favorable shear-cold pool
   balance along the leading edge of the convective system. As such,
   the potential exists for brief tornadoes, particularly where the MCS
   intersects the warm front. Otherwise, the setup appears favorable
   for more concentrated damaging wind potential with gusts up to 70-80
   mph. 

   The watch may need to be locally extended across a greater portion
   of eastern Kentucky.

   ..Mead.. 08/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   38568492 38958534 39208536 39388507 39568477 39718443
               39698401 38848333 38068260 37538252 37248283 37238312
               37598372 38568492 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH