Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1926

   Mesoscale Discussion 1926
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1257 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

   Areas affected...central into southeast Indiana...southwest
   Ohio...and potentially into far northern Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565...567...

   Valid 111757Z - 112000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565, 567
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A corridor of more widespread damaging winds with
   significant gusts up to 70-80 mph appears to be evolving from
   central through southeast Indiana into southwest Ohio and far
   northern Kentucky. An additional downstream watch or watch extension
   may become necessary.

   DISCUSSION...Recent KIND base velocity data suggest a strengthening
   cold pool with ongoing storms over Boone, Hamilton, and Madison
   Counties, to the north of the Indianapolis metropolitan area. That
   convection is located near an outflow/warm front composite boundary
   that has become better defined early this afternoon from central
   into southeast IN. The air mass to the west of the boundary
   continues to destabilize with latest objective analysis indicating
   MLCAPE as high as 3000 J/kg. While low-level lapse rates remain
   somewhat marginal, continued daytime heating ahead of the ongoing
   storms should support a steepening trend through the afternoon. 

   The current KIND VWP is sampling largely westerly deep-layer flow
   with 40-45 kt of deep-layer shear. While the shear vector
   orientation is not ideally aligned with the ongoing storms as of
   present, the upstream KLOT VWP suggests that the shear vector may
   become more favorably oriented with time. When combined with the
   destabilizing inflow air mass, the setup appears favorable for a
   corridor of enhanced damaging wind potential focused along or just
   to the north of the composite boundary.

   ..Mead.. 08/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   40228671 40618652 40668601 39938429 39268377 38748414
               38658475 39818630 40228671 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN