Mesoscale Discussion 1920
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Areas affected...parts of east central Indiana into southwestern
Ohio
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 111200Z - 111400Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...An initially linear band of strong storms may maintain
strength and undergo some further organization while advancing
southeastward through 9-11 AM EDT. This could pose some potential
for strong to locally damaging surface gusts, but this may be
short-lived and its not clear that it will require a severe weather
watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development, now in a linear band
northeast of the Muncie through Lafayette vicinities, still appears
rooted above a relatively stable boundary layer, along a weak
low-level frontal zone. However, latest objective analysis suggests
that low-level moistening along this boundary, coupled with perhaps
subtle steepening of lapse rates aloft, have contributed to ongoing
destabilization in a corridor ahead of activity through southwestern
Ohio. Updraft inflow emanating from this environment might provide
continuing support for strong thunderstorm development into the
13-15Z time frame, with some further organization possible aided by
modest vertical shear. However, with lower- to mid-tropospheric
mean westerly wind fields generally on the order of 20-25 kt, the
extent of the potential for damaging wind gusts to increase remains
unclear due to the lingering presence of weak low-level lapse rates.
..Kerr/Smith.. 08/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...
LAT...LON 40338427 40108361 39658279 38918287 38938396 39308468
40198575 40368581 40208487 40338427
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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