Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1906

   Mesoscale Discussion 1906
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0528 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of southeast VA into the Delmarva Peninsula
   and far southern NJ

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 556...558...

   Valid 102228Z - 110000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 556, 558
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Scattered damaging winds remain possible this evening with
   a line of thunderstorms moving east-southeastward towards the
   Atlantic Coast.

   DISCUSSION...A well-developed squall line with a history of
   producing scattered wind damage across southern/central VA will
   continue to track east-southeastward this evening. The airmass ahead
   of the line remains moderately unstable, with surface temperatures
   generally in the upper 80s to low 90s, and dewpoints in the 70s.
   Even though mid-level lapse rates remain modest, daytime heating has
   supported steepening of low-level lapse rates. This, coupled with
   around 30-40 kt of mid-level west-northwesterlies, will likely
   support scattered damaging wind potential with the line for the next
   couple of hours as it approaches the Atlantic Coast. A couple of
   cells that have developed ahead of the line across far southeast VA
   may also pose an isolated risk for severe hail in the short term. A
   local extension in area for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 558 may be
   needed for the rest of southeast VA based on current trends.

   ..Gleason.. 08/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   36997829 37967733 38767634 39277564 39377526 39267477
               39187456 38867470 38097510 37097586 36777628 36667732
               36777814 36997829 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN