Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1896

   Mesoscale Discussion 1896
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1159 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

   Areas affected...the Maryland and West Virginia Panhandles into the
   Delmarva

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 101659Z - 101900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging winds is expected to
   increase this afternoon, likely requiring a severe thunderstorm
   watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints
   in the upper 60s to lower 70s has contributed to a moderately
   unstable air mass as of early afternoon with steepening low-level
   lapse rates and MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Upstream convection over
   southwest PA is gradually developing a tighter leading-edge
   reflectivity gradient and more robust trailing stratiform region,
   suggestive of an organizing cold pool. 

   Current thinking is that the evolving convective system will further
   intensify as it continues east-southeast and encounters an
   increasingly unstable environment across the discussion area. The
   current KPBZ VWP is sampling strengthening west-northwest flow above
   2 km AGL, which will likely aid in further cold pool organization.
   These factors will lead to an increasing threat for damaging wind
   gusts across the area this afternoon, likely requiring the issuance
   of a severe thunderstorm watch.

   ..Mead/Hart.. 08/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39117919 39457922 39687831 39607644 39657577 39167542
               38627575 38367675 38547793 38717879 38877919 39117919 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN