Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1894

   Mesoscale Discussion 1894
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1044 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

   Areas affected...western into central New York and north-central
   Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 552...

   Valid 101544Z - 101745Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 552
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential may increase early this afternoon
   with storms located immediately ahead of an MCV. An additional
   downstream watch may become necessary.

   DISCUSSION...Ahead of a well-defined MCV, a broken band of
   thunderstorms has persisted this morning across portions of western
   NY and northwest PA. Considerable cloud cover has limited daytime
   heating and resultant air mass destabilization so far today.
   However, thinner clouds are allowing for stronger daytime heating
   across portions of central NY into north-central PA, which should
   allow for greater destabilization to occur with steepening low-level
   lapse rates.

   Dynamic forcing associated with the MCV is likely to sustain ongoing
   storms, which may intensify as they continue east and encounter an
   increasingly unstable environment. Earlier VWP observations near
   Cleveland, OH and current storm motions of around 40 kt are
   suggestive of a belt of enhanced westerly flow, generally in the 1-4
   km layer, which coupled with steepening low-level lapse rates, may
   support an increased potential for damaging wind gusts early this
   afternoon.

   ..Mead/Hart.. 08/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   41437896 42177902 42337904 42937804 43097654 42637608
               41987624 41527674 41387745 41437896 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN