Mesoscale Discussion 1885 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026 Areas affected...Western Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 549... Valid 100100Z - 100300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 549 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for severe winds will continue for the next 2-3 hours across much of WW 549 in western Nebraska. However, the most likely corridor for severe winds may emerge from the southern Nebraska Panhandle into far northeast Colorado and far southwest Nebraska. DISCUSSION...Recent echo top trends show deepening convective towers as a broken band of convection continues to push east into a reservoir of increasing MLCAPE. Downstream from this activity, the recent 00 UTC LBF sounding sampled very steep (8.7 C/km) mid-level lapse rates that are conducive for robust updrafts. However, warm temperatures between 850-700 mb are also yielding MLCIN on the order of -300 to -350 J/kg. Mixed-layer LFCs were estimated to be around 4 km, suggesting that a substantially deep cold pool will likely be needed to continue lifting parcels through the stable layer and maintain intensity of the line. Based on regional velocity/reflectivity data, it appears that such a cold pool is in the process of being established, but may not yet be sufficiently deep to maintain all portions of the line. Based on recent mesoanalysis estimates, MLCIN increases with eastward extent into central NE, but remains somewhat more modest across southwest NE, suggesting that the southern flank of the line may be favored for maintenance and/or further intensification over the next few hours. Given that this band has already produced measured gusts on the order of 55-65 mph, similar wind speeds appear possible for the short term (next hour or so), and may persist for the next few hours across southwest NE and far northeast CO. ..Moore.. 08/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41080359 41890303 42310271 42350234 41920027 41490018 41100019 40680056 40190115 40010166 39980210 40110259 40920347 41080359 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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