Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1883

   Mesoscale Discussion 1883
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0541 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

   Areas affected...eastern Wyoming into portions of western and
   central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 092241Z - 100045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms to increase in coverage and spread westward
   this evening with potential for damaging winds.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is increasing across potions
   of eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska over the last hour. The 18z
   RAOB from LBF shows stout MLCIN in place, which is still depicted by
   SPC mesoanalysis. However, with daytime heating CIN has weakened
   across the Nebraska Panhandle where temperatures are in the mid to
   upper 90s. Dew points in the 40s-50s F are contributing to large
   temperature/dew point spreads across the Nebraska Panhandle. Steep
   low to mid-level lapse rates are also noted across the region.
   Guidance is inconsistent with the evolution of storms out of
   Wyoming, with some favoring a more organized cluster with damaging
   wind potential and others favoring a weakening cluster with eastward
   propagation. This leads to low confidence in evolution and watch
   potential at this time. Should a cluster evolve, damaging wind
   potential (perhaps 75+ mph) would increase downstream. Trends will
   be monitored and a watch may be possible.

   ..Thornton/Mosier.. 08/09/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42779982 42950040 43080193 43070392 42970403 42440434
               41940433 41340358 40400182 40400060 40959974 41979952
               42729973 42779982 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN