Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1872

   Mesoscale Discussion 1872
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0708 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern North Dakota into
   far northern South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 090008Z - 090145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few instances of severe wind/hail may occur with storms
   that can mature over the next few hours. The severe threat should
   remain isolated, so a WW issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Multicellular storms/possible LP supercells have
   attempted to intensify over the past hour. The initial attempts at
   stronger convection have produced outflow to the southwest, where
   localized convergence is allowing for additional attempts at
   initiation to occur. At the moment, it is unclear if these initial
   storms will pose the primary threat for severe wind/hail, or if the
   greater severe threat will manifest from later storms this evening
   (per high-resolution guidance consensus). Uncertainty in convective
   evolution is heightened further by the presence of smoke
   overspreading the warm sector, which may inhibit convective
   development and intensification. 

   Nonetheless, under the condition that a thunderstorm should
   intensify further and become sustained, the presence of 1000-2500
   J/kg MLCAPE amid 50-60 kts of effective bulk shear is adequate in
   supporting supercell structures capable of producing severe wind and
   hail (with an instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail possible).

   ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 08/09/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45389890 45610075 45880151 46240181 46530175 46880032
               46939926 46979814 46669765 46039748 45489768 45389890 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN