Mesoscale Discussion 1868
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Areas affected...Ohio into western Pennsylvania
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 082154Z - 090000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may increase in coverage over the next
couple of hours, and could pose a risk for damaging winds, and
perhaps large hail, over parts of Ohio and western Pennsylvania.
However, the coverage of intense/severe thunderstorms should be
sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Convection has been slowly intensifying along a diffuse
cold front from the northern shores of Lake Erie southwestward into
western OH. So far most of this convection has largely been shallow
with only occasional updraft pulses strong enough to produce
lightning. However, with time the expectation is that continued
forcing along the approaching front, combined with gradually
deepening cold pools (especially where storm clustering can occur),
should support adequate lift for intensification of a few
cells/clusters within an otherwise buoyant and weakly capped
environment. Regional VWPs are sampling mid-level winds between
30-35 knots, which should yield effective bulk shear values of
around 25 knots - sufficient for some degree of storm organization.
Consequently, a severe storm or two capable of producing damaging
gusts and perhaps small to marginally severe hail may emerge from
this regime over the next couple of hours. In general, the weak
forcing for ascent should limit the coverage of strong/severe
storms, and the onset of nocturnal cooling after 00 UTC should
temporally constrain the severe threat to the next few hours. Given
these limitations, watch issuance appears unlikely.
..Moore/Mosier.. 08/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 40817862 40577883 40198067 39968178 39928251 39988329
40078367 40258385 40588381 40898343 41308263 41508203
41708151 42327967 42247881 41937838 41177845 40817862
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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