Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1859

   Mesoscale Discussion 1859
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0848 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

   Areas affected...South-central/southeast IA into adjacent parts of
   northeast MO and northwest IL

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 541...

   Valid 080148Z - 080315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 541
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may continue into the late
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...An isolated but persistent supercell is moving across
   southeast IA this evening, within an environment characterized by
   strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg) and sufficient deep-layer
   shear for storm organization. Increasing CINH should eventually lead
   to a weakening trend with this cell, but some threat for hail and
   damaging wind may persist as the storm continues to propagate along
   convective outflow and approaches the southeast edge of WW 541. 

   Additional storms have developed to the northwest of the ongoing
   supercell. While these storms are likely somewhat elevated, steep
   midlevel lapse rates (as observed in the 00Z OAX and DVN soundings)
   will support potential for isolated hail with the strongest cells.

   Farther west, isolated development cannot be ruled out along the
   trailing cold front into south-central IA, but large-scale ascent is
   generally weak, and the window of opportunity is decreasing with
   onset of nocturnal cooling and increasing CINH. The environment
   remains conditionally favorable in this area, if any storms can
   develop through late evening.

   ..Dean.. 08/08/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   41629250 41089116 40559080 40279097 40299152 40629291
               41059384 41429428 41639383 41779295 41629250 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN