Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1858

   Mesoscale Discussion 1858
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0659 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

   Areas affected...northern Arkansas and southern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 072359Z - 080130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to be possible this evening
   across the area. The degree of instability will support at least an
   isolated potential for large hail and damaging winds. A watch is not
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery and surface observations show a
   well-defined mesoscale convective vortex near Miller County, MO,
   moving east-southeast this evening. Isolated to scattered
   thunderstorms have developed along the periphery of this MCV,
   particularly to the south and east, where the environment is very
   unstable (MUCAPE values between 3000-4000 J/kg from SPC objective
   analysis).

   Modest surface convergence along various wind shift boundaries
   associated with the MCV will continue to provide foci for additional
   thunderstorm development this evening. Despite effective-layer shear
   remaining poor, the degree of instability, coupled with local
   augmentation of the kinematic environment due to the MCV, should
   result in at least some potential for large hail and damaging winds.


   A severe thunderstorm watch is not expected given the anticipated
   isolated nature of any severe potential.

   ..Marsh/Mosier.. 08/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35849017 35439137 35419242 35579366 35859408 36519419
               37159412 37649377 37969297 37969165 37789088 37559040
               36588983 35849017 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN