Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1857

   Mesoscale Discussion 1857
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0553 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

   Areas affected...Northern WI into Upper MI

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 542...

   Valid 072253Z - 080100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 542
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A wind-damage and isolated hail threat may continue into
   the evening.

   DISCUSSION...Loosely organized convection is ongoing from northern
   WI into western Upper MI and Lake Superior, along/ahead of a cold
   front. Earlier downstream heating has resulted in moderate
   destabilization, with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg (locally higher) per
   recent SPC objective mesoanalyses. Deep-layer shear is relatively
   modest, though some enhancement to flow in the lowest 2 km (per VWPs
   from KMQT) is resulting in effective SRH of 100-150 m2/s2,
   sufficient for at least modest storm organization. 

   A pocket of relatively steep lapse rates will favor continued
   wind-damage potential from northeast WI into western/central Upper
   MI through the early evening. Isolated hail also cannot be ruled out
   with the strongest embedded cells. The greatest storm coverage may
   tend to remain across Upper MI, though additional development cannot
   be ruled out across northern WI, north of an extensive cirrus shield
   covering the bulk of the state.

   ..Dean.. 08/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45939129 46818942 47668837 47958765 47808697 47228622
               46628630 45948665 45628692 45258715 44998786 45148875
               45288991 45619078 45939129 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN