Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1845

   Mesoscale Discussion 1845
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1055 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of the OK/TX Panhandles into extreme
   southwest KS/southeast CO

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539...

   Valid 070355Z - 070600Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for strong to severe gusts and isolated hail may
   spread southward through late evening into the early overnight
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell is moving slowly southward across
   far southwest KS late this evening. The 00Z DDC sounding depicted a
   favorable environment, with greater than 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and
   sufficient northwesterly flow aloft for 40+ kt of effective shear.
   With a continued nocturnal increase in MLCINH expected, the
   longevity of this cell may be limited. However, there have been some
   indications of backbuilding along the trailing outflow, and a threat
   for strong to severe gusts and isolated hail could spread toward the
   eastern OK Panhandle, if a small cluster can evolve with time. 

   Farther west, some modest clustering has been noted from extreme
   southeast CO. These ongoing storms may struggle to become better
   organized due to increasing CINH, but northerly mid/upper-level flow
   a modest nocturnal low-level jet may help to sustain a southward
   moving cluster into the northern TX Panhandle with time tonight.
   Despite increasing near-surface stability, a remnant well-mixed
   boundary layer will support potential for strong to severe gusts,
   especially if more robust outflow can become established.

   ..Dean.. 08/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   36780292 36990275 37210215 37380126 37430038 36940005
               36210011 35790063 35530122 35480180 35720269 36020293
               36330296 36780292 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN