Mesoscale Discussion 1844
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Areas affected...far southeast Colorado...southwest
Kansas...northwest Oklahoma...and portions of the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 070048Z - 070245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to
develop this evening with some potential for strong winds and hail.
The isolated nature of this threat should preclude the need for a
watch. Additional thunderstorms may develop later this evening,
perhaps posing a renewed threat for damaging winds.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are initiating across far southeast
Colorado and portions of southwest Kansas this evening. These storms
are developing within a hot airmass across portions of the Southern
Plains, where surface temperatures are still around 100F. The
eastern-most storm (across Clark and Meade counties in southwest
Kansas) appears to have developed on a subtle
wind-shift/differential heating boundary between the hot airmass to
the west and a residual cold pool from earlier convection to the
east.
High-resolution guidance suggests that initiation/additional
development will continue across southwest Kansas and southeast
Colorado over the next couple of hours. MUCAPE values are quite
large, with many areas in excess of 2000 J/kg. Effective-layer shear
is around 40 knots, which would support at least some potential for
at least transient supercell structures.
Given the high-based nature of these thunderstorms (LCLs near 3
kilometers) and the dry sub-cloud layer, thunderstorm cold pools may
eventually congeal into a coherent southward moving density current,
leading to a compact, southward moving MCS during the late evening
and overnight hours.
Trends will be monitored for potential watch needs, but the
relatively isolated nature of these initial thunderstorms should
preclude the need for a watch. However, depending on the resulting
strength of any congealed cold pool, a more coherent damaging wind
threat may develop. This potential also will be monitored.
..Marsh/Mosier.. 08/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36810301 37280314 37550170 37720045 37659907 37109813
36489818 36149902 36130072 36520262 36810301
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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