Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1840

   Mesoscale Discussion 1840
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1147 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of southeast AZ

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 060447Z - 060615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for strong to severe gusts may continue through
   late evening, before an expected weakening trend overnight.

   DISCUSSION...Vigorous convection has persisted this evening across
   southeast AZ, while the northern portion of a large MCS and related
   outflow over northeast Sonora has moved northwest across the border.
   Moderate buoyancy remains in areas that have not been convectively
   overturned, though CINH is beginning to increase with the onset of
   nocturnal cooling. While convection should eventually subside
   overnight, the presence of multiple surging outflows may allow for a
   continuation of deep convection and a threat of strong to severe
   gusts through late evening.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 08/06/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...

   LAT...LON   31481213 32241206 32511112 32270989 31890948 31500936
               31330948 31181049 31221131 31481213 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN