Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1836

   Mesoscale Discussion 1836
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1201 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

   Areas affected...parts of southeastern Nebraska through southwestern
   Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 050501Z - 050700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across the region could pose
   limited potential for hail and gusty winds into the 1-3 AM CDT time
   frame, but the severe weather threat generally appears limited.

   DISCUSSION...Aided by ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric
   warm advection, near the nose of a modest nocturnally strengthening
   southerly low-level jet (20-30 around 850 mb), thunderstorms have
   recently initiated to the cool side of a fairly sharp, stalled
   low-level baroclinic zone across the central Great Plains into
   middle Mississippi Valley.  Lapse rates above the stable
   near-surface layer appear to be supporting CAPE in excess of 1000
   J/kg, in the presence of strong westerly shear near the base of
   large-scale mid/upper troughing overspreading the north central U.S.
    This environment is supportive of organized convection, including
   supercell structures, but relatively warm thermodynamic profiles in
   the convective layer may tend to limit the risk for severe hail. 
   Barring the development of a notable surface pressure perturbation
   associated with gravity waves, which currently seems a low
   probability, the potential for damaging surface gusts also appears
   limited.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 08/05/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   41179601 41459537 41549479 41519346 40869323 40769388
               40529595 40899625 41179601 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH