Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1831

   Mesoscale Discussion 1831
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1136 PM CDT Mon Aug 03 2026

   Areas affected...parts of north central Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 537...

   Valid 040436Z - 040600Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 537
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development posing
   a risk for damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado still appears
   possible near and north-northeast of the Brainerd MN vicinity
   through around 1 AM CDT.  Otherwise, the risk for severe weather has
   diminished enough that a new severe weather watch is not
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Post-frontal 2-hourly surface pressure rises continue
   to strengthen, with the cold front now advancing across/east of the
   Park Rapids and Alexandria vicinities.  The primary developing
   surface frontal low now appears north of the international border,
   but at least a transient 2-hourly fall center (2.5 mb) was recorded
   in the 04Z surface observation at Brainerd, where the pre-frontal
   boundary-layer still appears characterized by modest CAPE (aided by
   upper 60s F surface dew points), in the presence of strong shear.  

   Given this environment, the potential for an additional evolving
   supercell structure still appears possible just ahead of, or along,
   the cold front near and north-northeast of the Brainerd vicinity,
   before the cold front overtakes this region by around 06Z.

   ..Kerr.. 08/04/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   46759457 47409363 46909324 46229421 46099478 46219509
               46759457 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN