Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1828

   Mesoscale Discussion 1828
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0321 PM CDT Mon Aug 03 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southern Arizona and southwest New
   Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 032021Z - 032215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across
   the higher terrain of southeastern AZ and far southwest NM this
   afternoon and evening. Steep lapse rates and some clustering will
   promote strong downdrafts with severe gusts possible. The need for a
   WW is unclear, but could be necessary later today.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2015 UTC, visible and radar imagery showed
   initial thunderstorms had developed over the higher terrain of the
   southern Mogollon Rim. Additional deepening cumulus was noted across
   the ranges of southern AZ and southwest NM as the air mass has
   warmed. Continued heating (surface temps of 90-105 F) is supporting
   air mass destabilization with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, increasing
   to near 2000 J/kg later today. As inhibition decreases the current
   storms are expected to intensify, with additional development likely
   in the next couple of hours from strengthening orographic
   circulations and the breaching of convective temperatures.

   As convection gradually matures this afternoon, modest northeasterly
   mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the upper ridge may
   allow storms to move off the higher terrain. The steep lapse rates
   in the lowest few km and some cold pool aggregation should promote
   strong downdrafts, with severe-caliber gusts possible. Isolated hail
   may also occur with the initial stronger updrafts given the moderate
   buoyancy. However, the lack of more robust mid-level flow and
   forcing suggests a generally slower convective evolution and more
   limited organization potential.

   CAM and AI/ML guidance do show the potential for one or more
   clusters to move south/southwest toward the Mexican border through
   this evening with an attendant severe risk. While the need for a
   watch is unclear, convective trends will be monitored.

   ..Lyons/Gleason.. 08/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31751274 32071276 32371275 32751248 32971203 33541122
               33571089 33171001 33180935 33120870 32890845 32650823
               32030794 31750792 31270804 31140915 31201106 31751274 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN