Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1826

   Mesoscale Discussion 1826
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0525 AM CDT Mon Aug 03 2026

   Areas affected...central and eastern North Dakota into northwest
   Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031025Z - 031230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible from storms across the
   northern Plains and Upper Midwest this morning.

   DISCUSSION...An expansive area of storms has developed across North
   Dakota and northwest Minnesota within a broad region of isentropic
   ascent. 1500 to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and effective shear of 30 to 35
   knots (per SPC mesoanalysis) will support some organization,
   including the potential for some supercell structures. Overall,
   expect mostly sub-severe high-based storms, but a few of the
   stronger storms may be capable of large hail. No watch is expected.

   ..Bentley/Smith.. 08/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45950172 47700038 48409935 49129615 49029465 48759448
               47689573 46399715 46009827 45819950 45950172 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN