Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1823

   Mesoscale Discussion 1823
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0316 PM CDT Sun Aug 02 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southeastern Arizona and far southwest
   New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022016Z - 022215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms are expected to increase in
   coverage over the higher terrain before spreading southwestward into
   the lower deserts this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to
   severe gusts are possible.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2015 UTC, regional visible imagery showed initial
   thunderstorms were developing over the southern Mogollon Rim and
   higher terrain across southeastern AZ and far southwest NM. A very
   warm air mass is in place with temperatures in the 90ss to 100s F
   with very steep lapse rates also present. Despite only modest
   surface moisture (dewpoints in the 50s F) the air mass should
   continue to destabilize with further heating and orographic ascent 
   this afternoon. This should allow for scattered thunderstorms late
   this afternoon and into the evening.

   Beneath the upper ridge over the West, flow aloft is fairly light,
   but ~20-25 kts of deep-layer shear will support occasional
   organization of multicell clusters as outflow consolidates and
   storms move southwestward off the higher terrain. The steep
   low-level lapse rates and clustering could support isolated strong
   to severe gusts with the more robust storms. However, the weak
   buoyancy and limited vertical shear suggest organization and severe
   potential will be largely sporadic. Thus, a WW appears unlikely.

   ..Lyons/Mosier.. 08/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31641233 33131181 33461113 33801064 33980939 33640892
               33020860 32420863 31780875 31170902 31130958 31211072
               31281102 31641233 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH