Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 01 2026
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 020831 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 01 2026 Convection associated with Genevieve has been gradually diminishing during the past several hours with any deep activity well north of the center. Despite the loss of organization on satellite imagery, a ASCAT-B scatterometer pass at 0531Z showed peak winds of 40-45 kt, a bit above the latest Dvorak estimates. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt. This is likely just a temporary bump in strength with all the models showing steady weakening through early next week due to cold water and increasing shear. Any deep convection should be gone within 24 h, and post-tropical status is shown at that time. No significant change to the intensity forecast was made with all guidance tightly clustered on the previous NHC intensity forecast. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 11 kt. This general motion should continue through the weekend as the cyclone is steered by a deep-layer ridge located to the northeast. By Monday, Genevieve is forecast to turn northwestward as it moves around the ridge. The latest models are showing a less sharp poleward turn, and the new NHC forecast is shifted slightly southward from the last one, a bit to the north of the recent Google DeepMind tracker and NOAA Corrected Consensus guidance HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 23.9N 137.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 24.5N 139.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 25.4N 141.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 03/1800Z 26.1N 143.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/0600Z 26.7N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1800Z 27.3N 145.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z 28.0N 145.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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