Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Aug 01 2026
345 WTPZ42 KNHC 020237 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 500 PM HST Sat Aug 01 2026 Since the previous advisory, the satellite presentation of Genevieve has been relatively stable. Most of the deep convection is limited to an area northeast of the center, consistent with light shear out of the west-southwest. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB is T2.5/35 kt, and recent objective satellite intensity estimates range from about 35-40 kt. These estimates are largely the same as the last advisory cycle, and with the steady satellite presentation supports maintaining the intensity of the tropical storm at 40 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 12 kt, which is unchanged from the last advisory. This general motion will continue through the end of the weekend as the cyclone is steered by a deep layer ridge located to the northeast. By Monday, Genevieve will decelerate and turn to the northwest as a post-tropical cyclone, as the aforementioned ridge retreats to the east. The track forecast is very similar to the last advisory, except we show a slower forward motion beyond 60 h. This forecast remains close to the Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean and HFIP Corrected Consensus Aid (HCCA). Genevieve is currently over 23-24 deg C SSTs, which are likely to stay within this range through the forecast period. The mid-level environment around the tropical storm is dry. The current light vertical wind shear is likely to increase later today through early next week, and this increasing shear should herald the degeneration of this system into a post-tropical cyclone by Monday. The intensity forecast shows steady weakening over the next few days, and then dissipating by 96 h. This is similar to the previous advisory. It is noted that Genevieve is forecast to retain gale-force winds for some time after it becomes post-tropical. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 23.5N 136.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 24.3N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 25.2N 140.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 03/1200Z 26.1N 142.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0000Z 26.9N 144.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1200Z 27.7N 144.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z 28.7N 145.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Pierce/Cangialosi
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