Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1818

   Mesoscale Discussion 1818
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

   Areas affected...northern and central Alabama into northwest Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 012000Z - 012200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a
   trailing cold front late this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind
   gusts may occur and a WW is possible.

   DISCUSSION...As of 20 UTC, visible imagery showed a band of
   deepening cumulus and initial showers along a trailing cold
   front/surface trough stretching from southern Middle TN into
   northern AL/MS. South of the primary upper low over the Midwest,
   synoptic ascent is rather modest, as is confluence with veered
   low-level flow along the lagging surface front. Regardless,
   continued heating approaching convective temperatures should erode
   the very weak lingering inhibition, with the modest frontal forcing
   supporting storm development late this afternoon. Despite poor
   mid-level lapse rates, the very warm temperatures and dewpoints in
   the mid to upper 70s F are supporting large buoyancy sufficient for
   severe storms, with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.

   Most CAM guidance depicts one or more bands of storms developing
   along the front, with 20-30 kt of effective shear supporting a few
   organized lines/clusters. This would favor some risk for damaging
   gusts given high PWATs and water loading of downdrafts. Severe risk
   is expected to be focused with the more robust clusters across
   north-central AL and eventually into GA and southeast TN this
   evening. Given the potential for damaging gusts with these storms a
   WW is possible this afternoon.

   ..Lyons/Mosier.. 08/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32448675 32308798 32688864 32978862 33378857 33878830
               34568760 34758741 35048708 35258668 35398546 35358470
               35268453 35138436 34908438 34448458 33878486 33258530
               32818581 32558625 32448675 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH