Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 31 2026
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 010845 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 31 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that Genevieve’s convective coverage has diminished over the past few hours as it continues west-northwestward through a dry and stable environment. A 0551Z ASCAT-B pass, however, showed that the circulation remains well-defined and sampled a peak wind of 40 kt north of the circulation. This aligns well with the latest intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 280/11 kt. This general motion will continue over the weekend as a low- to mid-level ridge remains north of the cyclone. Thereafter, a gradual turn to the northwest, then north-northwest is forecast due to an upper low located to its north over the far northeastern Pacific. The track guidance remains tightly clustered through the weekend, with some cross-track spread depicted early next week as it turns north-northwest. The updated NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory and closely follows the multi-model consensus (HCCA). Guidance favors a gradual weakening trend as Genevieve remains in a dry and stable environment with progressively cooler sea-surface temperatures along its track. Additionally, increasing southwesterly shear is forecast to begin by the end of the weekend. These conditions will result in further weakening, with Genevieve expected to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by Sunday night. The updated NHC intensity forecast reflects this trend and is very similar to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 22.6N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 23.1N 134.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 23.9N 137.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 25.0N 139.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 26.0N 142.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 03/1800Z 27.0N 144.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0600Z 28.1N 145.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0600Z 30.4N 146.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Evans
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