Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Jul 30 2026
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 310835 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 1100 PM HST Thu Jul 30 2026 Genevieve has continued to weaken as persistent dry-air entrainment steadily erodes its convective structure. Although the low-level circulation remains well-defined, the overall convective coverage has diminished significantly over the past several hours, with the deepest convection now limited to the western semicircle. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB and objective UW-CIMSS intensity estimates combined with the degraded satellite presentation support lowering the initial intensity to 55 kt. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 12 kt, and that general motion is expected to persist through the weekend as a strong low- to mid-level ridge remains positioned north of the cyclone. Thereafter, a gradual turn toward the northwest then the north-northwest is forecast in response to a weakness forming in the subtropical ridge due to an upper low over the northeast Pacific. The latest guidance remains in good agreement, and the updated NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory. Environmental conditions are forecast to remain unfavorable during the next several days due to a combination of very dry mid-level air, progressively cooler sea surface temperatures along its track, and increasing southwesterly shear. These conditions will result in a steady weakening trend, with the cyclone forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by the end of the weekend. The updated NHC intensity forecast reflects this weakening trend and is similar to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 21.7N 127.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 22.2N 129.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 23.1N 132.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 23.9N 134.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 24.7N 137.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 25.5N 140.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 26.6N 142.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/0600Z 29.2N 145.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/0600Z 32.6N 147.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Evans
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