Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Jul 29 2026
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 300835 TCDEP2 Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 1100 PM HST Wed Jul 29 2026 The satellite presentation of Genevieve's convective structure has degraded since the previous advisory. The low-level circulation remains embedded beneath a central dense overcast with cloud-top temperatures as cold as -70 C, which have been steadily warming, likely due to increasing dry-air entrainment. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and the latest objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 70 to 80 kt. Based on the satellite data and these estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt. The initial motion estimate is 300/10 kt. Genevieve is expected to continue moving generally west-northwestward during the next several days as a low- to mid-level ridge builds north of the cyclone. A modest increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days as the ridge builds farther west. Thereafter, a gradual turn toward the northwest, then the north-northwest is forecast in response to a weakness forming in the subtropical ridge. The latest guidance remains in good agreement, and the updated NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory. Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable during the next several days. Genevieve will move over progressively cooler sea surface temperatures while encountering increasing southwesterly shear and a drier mid-level environment. These factors should result in a steady weakening trend, with the cyclone forecast to weaken below hurricane strength by Friday. By this weekend, persistent dry air entrainment and a more stable environment should cause deep convection to gradually diminish, resulting in Genevieve becoming a remnant low by 96 h. The updated NHC intensity forecast reflects this weakening trend and is very close to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 20.2N 122.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 20.7N 123.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 21.5N 126.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 22.1N 129.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 22.9N 131.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 23.8N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 24.5N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 26.6N 143.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/0600Z 29.1N 145.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Evans
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