Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Jul 29 2026
086 WTPZ42 KNHC 292042 TCDEP2 Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 1100 AM HST Wed Jul 29 2026 The satellite presentation of Genevieve has slowly deteriorated today, as cold cloud top temperatures less than -30 C partially obscure the center. A 29/1352Z RCM-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar scan revealed that an eyewall replacement cycle had occurred earlier this morning and was nearly complete, and subsequently, the radius of maximum winds had expanded. Cloud top temperatures in the newly formed eyewall are warming, despite the prevalence of deep convection. The 1800Z intensity estimate from TAFB was 5.0/90 kt, and subjective estimates range from 74-90 kt. Based on these data and the satellite presentation, the initial intensity is set at 85 kt for this advisory. The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest around 8 kt, along the southwestern periphery of a strong mid-level ridge over the southern High Plains of the United States. Genevieve is expected to continue on a west-northwestward heading through this weekend with an increase in forward speed as the ridge expands westward. Late this weekend into early next week, Genevieve will turn toward the northwest then north, ahead of a strong upper-level low progressing eastward over the eastern Pacific. The latest NHC forecast track is slightly left of the previous track, and falls in the middle of the consensus track guidance, nearest to the corrected (HCCA) consensus aid. Genevieve will continue to feel the impacts of moderate northwesterly shear over the next 12 h or so, as well as gradually cooling waters and unfavorable upper-level dynamics. On Thursday, the forecast calls for the hurricane to move into an environment with increasingly dry mid-level conditions and waters cooler than 26C, leading to further weakening. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted further downward during the next 48 h. Genevieve is expected to fall below hurricane strength by Thursday night or early Friday, and may struggle to produce organized convection by the second half of this weekend, as indicated by the GFS and ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 19.2N 120.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 19.7N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 20.4N 124.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 21.2N 126.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 22.0N 129.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 22.7N 132.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 23.5N 134.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 25.4N 140.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 03/1800Z 27.9N 144.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Adams/Beven
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