Issued at 1100 PM HST Tue Jul 28 2026
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 290834 TCDEP2 Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 1100 PM HST Tue Jul 28 2026 The eye of Genevieve is no longer apparent in conventional satellite imagery. The center is embedded underneath a central dense overcast with very cold cloud top temperatures of -70 to -75 deg C. Proxy-visible and infrared satellite images show that northwesterly shear is restricting upper-level outflow on the west side of the hurricane. Based on the deteriorating satellite presentation and decreasing satellite intensity estimates (including a T5.5/102 kt Dvorak CI from TAFB), the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii were updated based on a recent ASCAT-C pass over the hurricane. Genevieve is moving west-northwestward (285/8 kt) along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. This steering ridge is forecast to strengthen and build westward over the next several days, which should keep Genevieve on a west-northwestward heading with some increase in forward speed late this week and through the weekend. The NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, generally falling between the latest corrected (HCCA) and simple (TVCN) consensus aids. The hurricane is experiencing moderate northwesterly shear that will persist for the next 12-24 h while it moves over gradually decreasing SSTs. By the time the shear is forecast to relent, Genevieve will likely have already crossed the 26 deg C isotherm and moved into a somewhat drier environment. The latest intensity guidance suggests additional strengthening is unlikely, and the updated NHC prediction shows Genevieve weakening through the forecast period. The largest downward adjustments to the forecast were made in the first 48 h, though NHC still lies on the upper end of the guidance. The system is forecast to fall below hurricane strength on Friday and become post-tropical at day 4, when the GFS and ECMWF indicate that strengthening shear will make it difficult for the system to sustain organized convection over sub-24 C waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 18.4N 118.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 18.8N 119.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 19.5N 122.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 20.2N 124.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 21.0N 127.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 31/1800Z 21.8N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 22.5N 132.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 24.2N 138.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 03/0600Z 26.0N 143.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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