Mesoscale Discussion 1794 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0836 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026 Areas affected...North GA into Upstate SC Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530...531... Valid 290136Z - 290300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530, 531 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado may continue through late evening, before an eventual weakening trend. DISCUSSION...Vigorous convection is ongoing this evening from north GA into Upstate SC. In the short-term, moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg) and 35-45 kt of northwesterly effective shear will continue to support organized convection. Given the evolution to mostly a linear mode across north GA, damaging wind is expected to be the primary hazard, though an embedded supercell or two cannot be ruled out, with some attendant potential for a brief tornado and marginal hail. With rather warm temperatures aloft (as observed on the 00Z FFC sounding) and a tendency for stronger large-scale ascent to be displaced northeast of the region, an eventual weakening trend is expected. However, at least an isolated severe threat may spread southward out of WW 530 and WW 531 before storms diminish. ..Dean.. 07/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 34968459 34698168 34728140 34428143 34218157 33818197 33898339 34068427 34118464 34418481 34918483 34968459 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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