Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 281437 TCDEP2 Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 The eye of Genevieve has become slightly ragged and is wobbling this morning, and the temperature in the eye is now below 0 C. An earlier SSMIS pass over the hurricane showed the affects of weak northerly wind shear and some erosion of the structure in the northwest quadrant. However, colder eyewall cloud top temperatures are wrapping back around the northern and western side of the eye, due to an uptick in convection as noted on first light visible satellite imagery, indicating that a small fluctuation in intensity may be occurring over the past hour or so. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 6.0/115 kt, while the objective estimates range from 96-114 kt. The initial intensity is set at 110 kt for this advisory. Genevieve is moving toward the west-northwest, or 300/8 kt, guided by a stout mid and upper-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. A slight increase in forward speed is forecast later this week as the ridge expands westward, and a strong trough approaches the west coast of the U.S. The latest NHC forecast lies within the tightly clustered guidance, and is closest to HCCA and the Google DeepMind solutions. Small fluctuations in intensity will be possible today. The Microwave-based Probability of Eyewall Replacement Cycle (MPERC) guidance indicates a 33 percent chance of an eyewall replacement cycle over the next 24 h. However, a gradual weakening trend is expected during the remainder of the week as the hurricane moves into cooler waters and encounters drier mid-level air. On Thursday, Genevieve is forecast to cross north of 20N into an area with cool waters less than 26 C, and more pronounced weakening will commence and continue into this weekend. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, and calls for Genevieve to fall below hurricane strength in a couple of days and become post-tropical this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 17.9N 116.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 18.3N 117.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 18.8N 118.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 19.5N 120.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 20.2N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 20.9N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 21.6N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 23.1N 133.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 24.9N 138.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Adams/Beven
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