Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026
022 WTPZ42 KNHC 280834 TCDEP2 Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 Genevieve remains a powerful major hurricane, but it is gradually losing strength. Although the cyclone is maintaining a distinct 15 n mi diameter eye, deep convection in the eyewall has become a little less symmetric with some dry slots occasionally evident in the northwestern quadrant. The 06Z satellite intensity estimates range from 105 to 120 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is nudged downward to 120 kt, but this could be a little generous. A Synthetic Aperture Radar pass did hint at the possibility of a secondary eyewall beginning to form, but unfortunately, there have not been any recent microwave images to confirm that. An ASCAT pass from around 04Z was helpful in updating the initial wind radii. The hurricane continues to move northwestward at about 9 kt. The track forecast philosophy appears straightforward. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to expand westward over the next few days, and that should cause Genevieve to move at a faster pace to the west-northwest later this week and into the weekend. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC forecast lies near the fast side of the guidance envelope, placing greater weight on the HCCA and Google DeepMind solutions. Although there could be some fluctuations in Genevieve's strength in the short term due to the potential of an eyewall replacement cycle, weakening should be the primary theme during the remainder of the week due to progressively cooler waters and drier air along the forecast track. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, and calls for Genevieve to fall below hurricane strength in a few days and become post-tropical this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 17.5N 115.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 18.6N 118.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 19.1N 119.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 19.8N 121.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 20.5N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 21.3N 126.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 22.7N 131.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 24.5N 137.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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