Mesoscale Discussion 1771
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Areas affected...portions of northeastern Wisconsin into Upper
Michigan and northern Lower Michigan
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 272157Z - 272330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail or wind may accompany the
stronger storms through the remainder of the afternoon into the
early evening hours. The severe threat should remain isolated, but
convective trends will continue to be monitored should storm
coverage become more widespread than anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Several multicells and supercells have initiated ahead
of a cold front, where prior storms have yet to overturn the
troposhere. Ahead of the ongoing storms, surface temperatures remain
over 80 F, amid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints, yielding 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE over MI and 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE in WI, amid 50 kts of effective
bulk shear. As such, the stronger, longer lasting storms may produce
a few instances of severe wind or hail, especially with storms at
the terminus of the 850 mb warm-air advection axis. The current
thinking is that the majority of the storms will be shorter lived,
with the severe threat likely remaining localized. However,
convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW
issuance should storms intensify further.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...
LAT...LON 45139008 45598867 46378659 46418495 45888409 45208366
44428342 44148379 44068492 43968620 43798747 43788847
44228989 45139008
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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