Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1765

   Mesoscale Discussion 1765
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0111 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of the Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271811Z - 272015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for damaging downburst winds should increase
   through late afternoon as thunderstorm coverage increases across
   portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has been percolating across the greater
   Mid-Atlantic region from late morning through early afternoon. While
   much of this activity has been fairly shallow and transient so far,
   a few stronger cores have briefly pulsed to near severe limits
   before decaying. Weak deep-layer wind shear will continue to
   modulate overall storm intensity and longevity; however, steady
   diurnal heating through broken cloud cover has allowed temperatures
   to warm into the 80s and low 90s within a somewhat moist air mass.
   This heating/mixing has allowed low-level lapse rates to increase to
   around 8 to 8.5 C/km, which is favorable for strong downbursts
   capable of producing damaging winds (most likely 40-60 mph). GOES
   imagery shows several deepening towers and cumulus clusters, hinting
   that thunderstorm coverage will continue to increase - especially
   along a subtle surface trough/weak front draped across the region.
   The potential for damaging gusts should increase in tandem with
   thunderstorm coverage, but the overall threat should remain
   sufficiently localized and transient to preclude watch issuance.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 07/27/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38207507 37887551 37947593 38207613 38617667 39087684
               39667684 40417673 40977659 41447642 41837595 41947547
               41907481 41767428 41547395 41257373 40717366 39987386
               39387441 38857489 38207507 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH