Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1749

   Mesoscale Discussion 1749
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0734 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

   Areas affected...portions of western into middle Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 270034Z - 270130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging gusts, a few of which may be severe, are expected
   to accompany an approaching MCS. If the MCS maintains intensity
   while approaching the KY/TN border over the next hour or so, a WW
   issuance may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...A cold-pool-driven MCS, with a history of wind damage,
   continues propagate south-southeast at approximately 40 kts. It is
   plausible that this MCS will maintain intensity given the
   combination of 4500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kts of effective bulk
   shear (oriented perpendicular to the leading line) preceding the
   cluster. Assuming this remains the case, the MCS is poised to enter
   TN by around 0130Z. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may be
   needed beforehand to address the impending severe threat if this MCS
   maintains its current intensity.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/27/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36168899 36408859 36538818 36638744 36628666 36388650
               35848638 35348647 35138662 35028682 35038759 35068816
               35098839 35208867 36168899 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH