Mesoscale Discussion 1743
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Areas affected...Eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 262024Z - 262230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are likely across far eastern
Georgia and southern South Carolina through early evening, and a few
damaging gusts appear possible. However, the overall severe threat
should remain limited.
DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, GOES and reflectivity imagery have
shown gradually deepening convective showers across far eastern GA
and southern SC in proximity to a subtle surface low and along the
flanks of a cold pool established by prior convection to the north
of the Charleston, SC area. Weak low-level convergence coupled with
further diurnal heating should promote continued, but slow,
deepening/intensification of convection through early evening. In
proximity to this activity, temperatures in the 90s are supporting
~20 F dewpoint depressions that suggest boundary-layer depth is
approaching 1.5 to 2 km. These low-level thermodynamic conditions
are favorable for strong downbursts capable of producing damaging
gusts (maximum wind speeds most likely of 40-60 mph). Given the
number of incipient convective cells across the region, at least a
couple instances of damaging winds appear possible. However, modest
deep-layer wind shear and weak broad-scale ascent across the region
should modulate overall convective intensity and longevity,
precluding the need for a watch.
..Moore/Leitman.. 07/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...
LAT...LON 33698128 33558084 33218030 32778013 32538013 31808099
31308130 31258164 31418195 31708205 32388213 33098207
33338198 33638161 33698128
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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