Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1736

   Mesoscale Discussion 1736
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0745 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

   Areas affected...Southwest/South-Central
   Minnesota...Northwest/North-Central Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 260045Z - 260245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Threat for severe gusts up to 90 mph and large hail around
   1 inch in diameter will persist across southwest/south-central
   Minnesota and northwest/north-central Iowa this evening. A Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch will be issued downstream to cover these
   convective hazards.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing convective cluster continues to progress
   eastward across southeast South Dakota at around 35 kt. This speed
   has been fairly stead over the past hour or so, suggesting the line
   has not intensified. Even so, several severe gusts have been
   measured, including 70 mph in Douglas County. A recent increase in
   echo tops near the center of the line suggests some additional
   strengthening may be underway. Given the ample low-level moisture
   downstream (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 70s/low 80s) and extreme
   buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 3500 J/kg) this strengthening would
   likely continue, with an attendant threat for severe wind gusts
   across southwest/south-central Minnesota and northwest/north-central
   Iowa. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch will be issued downstream to cover these
   convective hazards.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 07/26/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   44519654 44859537 44849450 44419352 43629348 42919382
               42619444 42619526 42769637 43589676 44519654 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN