Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Jul 25 2026
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 251433 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 500 AM HST Sat Jul 25 2026 The recent satellite evolution of Fausto suggests the hurricane may have undergone an eyewall replacement cycle. The ragged eye of the hurricane has grown in size to about 30 n mi, while the inner eyewall convection decayed earlier this morning. A dry slot noted on the eastern side of the hurricane shows there are still pockets of dry air tangled up within the circulation, but for now the ring of deep convection surrounding the eye is closed. The initial intensity is held at 85 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak (77 kt) and objective (77-94 kt) estimates. A G-IV synoptic surveillance mission later today will sample the environment around Fausto. Based on the structural changes of Fausto, small near-term intensity fluctuations are possible. However, all of the guidance continues to support gradual weakening over the next several days as Fausto moves over marginal sea-surface temperatures and into an even drier environment. In addition, Fausto will encounter increasing southwesterly shear while it approaches the Hawaiian Islands, which will displace the convection and strongest winds to the northern side of the circulation. No major changes have been made to the NHC intensity forecast, which follows the latest simple (IVCN) and corrected (HCCA) consensus aids. Fausto is predicted to be a weakening, sheared tropical storm when it passes near Hawaii. The hurricane is moving westward at 12 kt along the southern periphery of a narrow subtropical ridge over the eastern and central Pacific. This feature should keep Fausto on a westward heading through the next several days, bringing the center into the central Pacific basin on Sunday and toward Hawaii early next week. The center of Fausto is forecast to make its closest approach to the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. The track guidance trended slightly northward this cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction. While the current forecast brings the center of Fausto just to the north of the Hawaiian Islands, interests across the state should continue to pay close attention to forecast updates. Key Messages: 1. Fausto is expected to weaken as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands early next week, but uncertainty remains regarding its exact track and intensity. While the current forecast brings the center just north of the islands, a track farther south would result in a greater risk of stronger winds and heavier rainfall. Interests across Hawaii should continue to monitor the progress of Fausto. 2. Confidence is high that swells generated by Fausto will reach the Hawaiian Islands well in advance of the cyclone, producing increasing surf and dangerous rip currents. Surf is expected to begin building across east-facing shores of the eastern end of the state on Sunday, spreading westward Sunday night into Monday, and continue building through Tuesday as Fausto approaches and moves into the area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 19.1N 136.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 19.5N 138.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 19.9N 140.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 20.3N 142.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 20.7N 145.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 21.1N 148.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 21.6N 151.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 22.5N 156.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 23.5N 161.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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