Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Jul 24 2026
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 250238 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 500 PM HST Fri Jul 24 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that Fausto's overall structure has changed little during the past several hours. The hurricane continues to exhibit a well-defined and fairly symmetric inner core, with a closed ring of deep convection surrounding the eye and well-established upper-level outflow. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from around 80 to 90 kt. Based on a blend of the available intensity estimates and the satellite presentation, the initial intensity is maintained at 90 kt. The initial motion estimate is 275/12 kt. A strong subtropical ridge is forecast to remain positioned north of Fausto through the forecast period, steering the cyclone generally westward during the next several days. The latest track guidance remains tightly clustered through about 72 hours, with somewhat greater spread developing thereafter as the storm approaches the Hawaiian Islands. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and lies between the multi-model consensus (HCCA) to the north and the ECMWF to the south. Although the current forecast brings Fausto just north of the Hawaiian Islands during the Tuesday through Wednesday time frame, the islands remains well within the typical day 4-5 track error envelope, and interests across the state should continue to monitor the progress of the hurricane. Fausto is expected to maintain a well-organized inner core into Saturday while remaining over warm waters in a relatively favorable environment. Thereafter, progressively cooler sea surface temperatures, a drier surrounding environment, and increasing westerly vertical wind shear by early next week should initiate a gradual weakening trend. Simulated satellite imagery depicts a similar evolution, maintaining a well-defined cyclone into Saturday before gradually eroding the convective structure late this weekend into early next week. By the time Fausto approaches the Hawaiian Islands, it is forecast to be a weakening tropical storm with the deepest convection becoming increasingly displaced from the low-level center. The NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous advisory and remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Although Fausto is expected to weaken as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands early next week, uncertainty remains regarding its exact track and intensity. The current forecast brings the center just north of the islands, but a track farther south would result in a greater risk of stronger winds and heavier rainfall. Interests across Hawaii should continue to monitor the progress of Fausto. 2. Confidence is high that swells generated by Fausto will reach the Hawaiian Islands well in advance of the cyclone, producing increasing surf and dangerous rip currents. Surf is expected to begin building across east-facing shores of the eastern end of the state on Sunday, spreading westward Sunday night into Monday, and continue building through Tuesday as Fausto approaches and moves into the area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 18.7N 133.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 19.0N 135.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 19.4N 138.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 19.7N 140.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 20.0N 142.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 20.3N 145.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 20.8N 148.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 21.9N 154.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 22.6N 159.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Evans/Pierce
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