Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1725

   Mesoscale Discussion 1725
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0548 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

   Areas affected...portions of central into southeastern North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512...

   Valid 242248Z - 250045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe wind and hail will continue with ongoing storms for
   the next several hours. A wind swath is possible as storms continue
   to merge, and a few gusts exceeding 75 mph cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Outflow from multiple high-based supercells has merged
   over the past hour, resulting in the development of a loosely
   organized cold-pool-driven MCS across central ND. This MCS is poised
   to propagate southeastward amid an environment comprised of steep
   tropospheric lapse rates and effective bulk shear well over 50 kts.
   Stronger cores remain embedded within this MCS, with MRMS mosaic
   MESH showing potentially severe hail continuing with this storm.
   However, multiple measured severe gusts in the 60-80 mph range have
   recently been received as upscale growth continues. The current
   thinking is that a loosely organized cluster of storms (perhaps
   maintaining MCS structure) will be maintained for at least a few
   more hours, resulting in severe wind and hail. If a more organized
   leading line of convection can become established, oriented normal
   to the northwesterly deep-layer shear vector, a severe wind swath
   may result. Either way, 50+ kt gusts should continue, with 75+ mph
   gusts also possible.

   ..Squitieri.. 07/24/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46790015 47179934 47339871 47309810 46959778 46559777
               46269817 46089893 45999967 45950018 46790015 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN