Mesoscale Discussion 1724 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0532 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 Areas affected...portions of far eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota Concerning...Tornado Watch 511... Valid 242232Z - 242330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 511 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe gusts and isolated tornadoes persists over far eastern ND into northern MN. Severe hail, including stones over 2 inches in diameter, are also a concern. DISCUSSION...Mature supercells have become established within a low-level warm-air advection regime, with MRMS mosaic MESH data indicating the possibility of 2-3 inch diameter hail falling with this storm. These storms continue to traverse an unstable troposphere, characterized by 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE given upper 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. 50+ kts of westerly 500 mb flow cresting the upper ridge is overspreading the entrance region of a 25+ kt southwesterly low-level jet, yielding over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Furthermore, the MVX VAD depicts a sizeable hodograph with appreciable curvature, with nearly 200 m2/s2 effective SRH in the 0-1 km layer, which is shown to precede these supercells per 22Z mesoanalysis. The current thinking is that these supercells will persist for at least a couple more hours, accompanied by a risk of isolated tornadoes and very large hail, perhaps exceeding 2 inches in diameter. However, while other supercells with a severe hail/tornado risk may develop soon, the current thinking is that the convection should gradually merge into an MCS, where severe wind gusts will become a prevailing concern, including for gusts potentially exceeding 75 mph. ..Squitieri.. 07/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... LAT...LON 48139775 48419614 48409446 48039346 47509314 47129317 46859348 46789442 46749523 46769605 46849669 47169748 48139775 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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