Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1723

   Mesoscale Discussion 1723
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0249 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241949Z - 242145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development across far eastern New Mexico and
   into the Texas Panhandle is expected within the next 1-2 hours.
   Storms will be capable of producing strong to severe downburst
   winds, but this threat will remain fairly isolated and negate the
   need for a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows cumulus development
   along a weak trough axis draped from eastern NM into the
   northeastern TX Panhandle. Modifying a recent 18 UTC AMA sounding
   using recent surface observations (which feature temperatures
   quickly warming into the upper 90s and low 100s with 55-60 F
   dewpoints) suggests that MLCIN has largely been eroded by the warm
   temperatures and MLCAPE has likely increased to 2000-2500 J/kg. The
   rate of cumulus growth across eastern NM and into the TX Panhandle
   corroborates this analysis and suggests that deep convective
   initiation will likely occur within the next 1-2 hours. 

   Observed dewpoint depressions on the order of 40-45 F and the 18 UTC
   sounding suggest boundary-layer depth will likely be on the order of
   2-3 km across the region, which will promote downdraft accelerations
   and the potential for strong to severe downburst winds - possibly as
   strong as 55-65 mph based on environmental conditions and output
   from recent high-res guidance (which appears to be capturing
   thermodynamic trends well). However, poor deep-layer wind shear will
   promote transient and poorly organized convection. This will also
   help focus the primary severe wind threat to mainly along and near
   the surface trough where low-level convergence will be maximized.
   Given these concerns, watch issuance is not expected.

   ..Moore/Smith.. 07/24/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34630377 36260190 36620129 36680079 36690028 36539997
               36269987 35959989 35610000 33710256 33560301 33550340
               33670369 34020382 34370388 34630377 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH