Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1717

   Mesoscale Discussion 1717
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0533 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 232233Z - 240000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may occur through the evening hours
   with the stronger storms. Convective trends are being monitored for
   the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered multicells have been gradually intensifying
   ahead of a surface low along the southern CO/KS border while
   traversing a surface baroclinic boundary. Ahead of the ongoing
   storms, a well-mixed boundary layer is in place, with surface
   temperatures nearly 100 F on the north side of the front, and T/Td
   spreads in the 30-40 F range. Some of the recent DDC VAD data shows
   appreciable low-level hodograph curvature, with around 300 m2/s2
   0-3km SRH potentially contributing to continued organized
   multicellular modes merging into a loosely organized MCS through the
   evening. Should upscale growth continue, the deep and mixed boundary
   layer may encourage enough evaporative cooling with the stronger
   storms to promote a severe gust threat. An instance or two of hail
   may also occur. Either way, convective trends will continue to be
   monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch if storms can
   further organize and intensify on a widespread basis.

   ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/23/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   37400157 38410140 38740133 38910101 38720013 38169956
               37589955 37229968 37000040 37080116 37400157 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN