Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2026
852 WTPZ41 KNHC 230236 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 500 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2026 Fausto has not changed much over the past several hours. There have been signs of a cloud-filled eye on GOES-18 visible imagery, at times, with an impressive central dense overcast along with tight banding noted. Water vapor channels continue to show some dry air just to the north, impinging on Fausto. Subjective Dvorak numbers from TAFB are 4.5/75 kt, while objective numbers are wide-ranging from 53-81 kt. Taking a blend of the satellite estimates, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt for this advisory. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 290 degrees at 7 kt. Fausto should speed up soon, in a direction between west and west-northwest, as ridging strengthens to the north of the cyclone. That motion should then continue through the remainder of the forecast period. There is notable along-track spread at days 4-5. The GFS is the slowest and farthest north, while the HCCA (corrected consensus) and GDMI (Google Deep Mind ensemble mean) are the fastest and farthest south models. The TCVN simple consensus is in between the two camps. The NHC forecast leans much closer to the HCCA and GDMI, but is not quite as far south or as fast as those solutions. This forecast is nearly identical to the previous NHC forecast. Fausto will remain in a low shear environment for the next 5 days. The cyclone is currently over sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) between 26-27C, and those SSTs will decrease slightly to around 26C in about 48 h. Meanwhile, mid-level relative humidities appear moist enough for the hurricane to maintain its intensity through 36 h, despite the current nearby dry air noted just to the north of the cyclone. Fausto will move into a progressively drier environment between day 2-4, which should lead to gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is toward the higher side of the guidance for the first 48 h. Thereafter, the forecast lies closer to the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. Given the expected mid-level relative humidities in the 30 to 40 percent range from days 4-5, it is likely that Fausto will weaken to a tropical storm by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 17.5N 123.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 17.7N 124.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 18.0N 127.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 18.3N 130.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 18.6N 132.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 18.9N 135.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 19.2N 137.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 19.9N 142.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 20.6N 147.9W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen
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