Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2026
065 WTPZ41 KNHC 221444 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 500 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2026 Fausto appears to be contending with intrusions of dry air based on its deteriorated satellite structure this morning. Recent AMSR-2 and GMI passive microwave images show the mid-level eyewall of the hurricane is no longer closed, and dry slots are evident in geostationary satellite images. As a result of these changes, the satellite intensity estimates have decreased this morning. The initial intensity is set at 70 kt, which is in good agreement with the latest UW-CIMSS D-PRINT, D-MINT, and SATCON estimates. Fausto continues moving west-northwestward (285/6 kt) while being steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. This feature is forecast to strengthen over the next few days, which should keep Fausto on a west-northwestward to westward heading with some increase in forward speed later this week and over the weekend. The track models are in good agreement through 72 h, with increased cross-track spread noted at days 4-5. The Google Deep Mind and HCCA remain on the southern side of the guidance envelope, while the GFS and regional hurricane models are still slower and farther north. Little change was made to the official NHC track forecast, which continues to follow HCCA on the southern side of the guidance suite. Some restrengthening is possible during the next day or two while Fausto moves over warm waters in a light to moderate shear environment. However, continued intrusions of dry air may limit the potential for further intensification, and the NHC forecast only shows modest strengthening during the next 24-36 h. As Fausto moves westward, it is predicted to encounter a drier and more stable air mass over the weekend while tracking near the 26 deg C isotherm. Thus, slow weakening is shown during the latter half of this forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains on the higher side of the intensity guidance. Note that any large northward track deviations would likely cause Fausto to weaken even faster than shown in this forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 16.9N 121.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 17.3N 122.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 17.7N 125.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 18.1N 127.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 18.4N 130.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 18.6N 133.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 18.8N 135.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 19.5N 141.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 20.0N 146.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Source link