Issued at 1100 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2026
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 220835 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 1100 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2026 Hurricane Fausto's satellite presentation has improved throughout the evening, with deep convection bursting over the low-level center, with cold cloud tops near -80C, and a large curved band on the southeast side of the system. Earlier SAR satellite imagery and scatterometer data show that the center of the system was farther east than anticipated. Satellite intensity estimates have generally trended upward over the last several hours, with UW-CIMSS ADT and AiDT at 74 and 65 kt, respectively. The latest TAFB subjective intensity estimate was T5.0/90 kt. Given the improved satellite presentation and these estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 75 kt for this advisory. The system is moving west-northwestward at an estimated 285/7 kt along the southern edge of a subtropical ridge to the north. The ridge is forecast to strengthen and build westward over the next several days, which should cause the hurricane to continue moving west-northwestward to westward throughout the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one through 72 hours, with little spread in the track guidance. Beyond 72 hours, the forecast has once again shifted southward toward the latest HCCA and GDMI consensus aids, and lies between these aids and the simple consensus. Model spread increases toward the end of the forecast period, with the GFS and some of the regional hurricane models slower and farther north, while HCCA and GDMI are faster and farther south. Fausto is currently moving over warm ocean temperatures within an environment of light to moderate wind shear and abundant mid-level moisture, which should allow for further strengthening. Along the forecast track, Fausto will pass over gradually cooling SSTs, and will be moving roughly parallel to the 26C isotherm by 36 hours. At the same time, mid-level relative humidity values are expected to decrease through the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast calls for continued strengthening though a slightly earlier peak than previously forecast, followed by gradual weakening. This forecast lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope in the short term, before aligning closer to the consensus as the system weakens. Should Fausto take a more northerly track, the system would struggle to sustain deep convection, potentially leading to a faster weakening trend than is currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 16.7N 120.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 17.0N 121.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 17.4N 123.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 17.7N 126.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 18.0N 129.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 18.3N 132.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 18.7N 134.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 19.3N 139.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 19.8N 144.6W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly
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